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BITS AND PIECES

Foar de wyn is elk een hurdsiler   (Friesian) 

Zit alles mee dank an iedereen een prestatie leveren  (Dutch) 

If the wind is with you, everybody is a fast sailor 

(Proverbial phrase – Netherlands)

Constant

With rapid technology changes and the endless flow of fascinating R&D press releases, some of the updates I wrote just three months ago are already old news.  As one purpose of this blog is to help people not entirely in the maritime industry to keep up, here are some of the latest innovations (or proposed innovations) in maritime design and marketability.

Transitioning

As of May 2022, the majority of new construction orders, 63% in gross tons, involve ships with alternative fuel capabilities.  Fifty-nine percent of orders in 2022 are for LNG. Hybrid/battery ships have 26 orders, although these are for small niche market routes.  Twelve percent of orders are for ships to be powered by ammonia.

While LNG powered ships are in the lead, these are often dual fuel constructed to also run on LSFO.  With the current cost of LNG, these ships still tend to rely on the LSFO or the even cheaper HSFO, if they are equipped with scrubbers.  More advanced LNG ship designs are being built to run on LNG and ammonia/methanol.  Somewhere in the not-too-distant future (2030?), mandatory low emissions will force all ships to employ the greener, albeit considerably more expensive, alternative fuels now being explored.

Build it and they will come

Owners want to comply with zero-carbon regulations and are being given financial incentives through, among others, the Poseidon Principles agreements among lenders and insurance underwriters.  Similar agreements are being made to use green ships by major bulker charterers.  But why build a ship that runs on ammonia or methanol when there are no fueling stations?

Consortiums are coming together to provide these two major zero-carbon fuels of the future.

Methanol has one major backer in Maersk who has chosen this to be the future fuel of their large fleet. Methanol can be dangerous to humans and is not by itself a zero-carbon fuel as it emits methane.  Methane can be recovered but it is an additional step that still needs to be worked out.

Ammonia, although it has its own dangers, has been carried as cargo on ships for decades.  It is a zero-carbon fuel if it can be produced without the process creating GHG.  There are already groups that are planning the manufacture of green ammonia and green hydrogen and to have it available on major trade routes. Desirable sites are said to be Singapore, Oman on the Arabian Sea/Persian Gulf, and a site in Egypt for the Suez Canal traffic.

Not as specific, but in the talking stages, are sites in Gibraltar, a site near the tip of South Africa and South America, in Australia, and a major Euro port like Rotterdam.  Just like the fuel stops that were created on the trade routes of 100 years ago.

But new bunkering sites will not be a simple pile of steam coal or a tank farm of heavy and distilled fuels. Manufacture, storage, and distribution of these new fuels will be complicated, expensive, and slow.

With a lower profile, a third future fuel is green hydrogen.  This is already being produced in Australia, but transporting it to users’ sites is just beginning.  A current 1,250-cubic meter hydrogen tanker is running green hydrogen from Australia to Japan.  Currently, the Japanese are getting ship designs approved and in the design phase is a ship to carry 160,000 cubic meters of green hydrogen.  By the time this ship is in service near the end of the 2020’s, it is hoped that the manufacture of green hydrogen will be at a rate to readily load such ships.

 

 

Statistics on the move

For decades, owners have built ships from the financial base of a 20- to 25‑year economic life.  Scrapping statistics have backed those numbers. Yes, vessels can last longer than that.  I appraised ST. MARYS CHALLENGER when she was 103 years old and still making money. (Now her forebody is an ATB barge and still making money!)  Jones Act vessels, particularly blue water vessels, are built with an expected economic life of 35-45 years, depending on the type of vessel and the level of complexity and cost of its design.

But in the wider world, the traditional normal economic life range seems to be dropping in circumstances where the age of a vessel can determine if it is eligible for hire.

Major oil companies charter in tankers no older than 15 years.  China has some similar rules for vessels in their water. Loans and leases tend to cover no more than the first 15 years of a ship’s life as Special Survey No.3 can bring maintenance costs and Capex surprises.

It is even more complicated today in that a ship delivered today that runs on LNG may not be clean enough to operate in 15 years.  Hence, owners spending more today to make a ship dual fuel ready to possibly extend its life as future regulations force economic obsolescence.

While 20 years is still the norm, that next five years, from age 15 to age 20, for some vessels, needs to be kept in mind.

As a side thought, with regulations on ship scrapping sure to become more common for green scrapping practices, owners may be weighing the possible future income stream against the lower scrapping return from green yards, and scrap ship before tougher scrapping rules come into effect.  This might also play with the “stranded asset” label of ships that cannot economically produce acceptable EEXI/CII credentials and will lose their operational certification before age 20.

Taxation as an incentive

Not directly related to ship construction and ship values, Carbon Taxation in some, or several forms, is on the near horizon.  The European Commission and IMO are working on taxation plans, with the EC version reportedly coming out for the end of the year.  China also has a version, as does Japan.  The general idea of all of them is that ships that exceed a certain level of emissions will pay a tax/fee on every ton of the excess.  In some of the plans, the collected monies go to R&D for cleaner ships.  Other variations are where clean ships, such as the CII grade A and B ships, sell their “cleanliness” to the C and higher ships, A form of reward for good behavior.

A sideline in the marine industry will be entities collecting CO2 for disposal as well as ships that will be built to carry CO2 from collection sites to disposal sites.

The battery battles

The race for cheaper, cleaner, lighter, longer lasting batteries continues.

On the horizon for ships (and even locomotives and short haul trucks) is the Vanadium redox flow battery (VFRB).  Testing shows that VFRBs have numerous benefits, from a much longer life of 20,000 cycles of 100% to 5% capacity.  They are also easier to recycle, may be faster to recharge by swapping out the functioning liquids, and cheaper to make with vanadium recovered from coal ash, slag, and other industrial discards.  Not to mention these batteries are extremely safe.

The drawbacks are still regarding costs.  Recovery of vanadium, a very common material, has become important to major countries as at a reasonable cost, it is domestically available, unlike lithium.  So work is to make recovery cheaper.  The other cost item is that despite all the benefits, the power density of VFRBs is presently too low to compete economically.  Involved companies in Europe, North America, and Australia are working on this aspect and are talking of a very competitive power density by 2024.

As mentioned, this system is for larger transportation types, and its main interest is for power station storage. Power comes from the interaction of two tanks of liquids through a membrane.  The larger the tanks, the more power. These tanks are too large to compete with smaller lithium batteries that are great for car use. But with the space available at land stations, size is not a problem. Studies show that VFRB batteries could be used in the standard European short sea shipping freighter/tanker and provide a range of 650 miles. As power density improves and costs drop the VFRB could be a perfect zero-emission propulsion source.

-Norman Laskay

If you’d like to keep this conversation going, please email me at nlaskay@DLSmarine.com

 

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Additional articles

Who’s In Charge Here?

As pointed out in past blogs, technology is advancing at a swift pace powered by ecological regulations and ESG investments; however, laws (particularly Admiralty laws) can’t advance at such a pace.

The state of maritime law as it pertains to these new areas of the marine industry is very important to lenders, lessors, and marine underwriters. What does the insurance policy cover and who is/are the beneficiaries? How can a lender protect their position? Here are some things to consider:

Read More »

What To Do About CO2

In many previous articles, I have written about the marine industry reacting to the CO2 emission reduction standards required for 2030, 2040, and the final Zero Emissions of 2050. These articles have been about the competition among alternate lower emission fuels (such as LNG and ammonia), changes in hull designs (to include rudders and propellors), improvements in dual-fuel engines, wind assist, and how all of these changes will be funded.

Read More »

Another Look at the Fuel Gauge

First, a look at the current leader, LNG. Even though the World Bank came out against LNG encouraging owners to skip LNG and concentrate on hydrogen-based fuels. We’ll get into hydrogen as a fuel later in this edition. The World Bank’s reasoning is that LNG is not that clean because of methane slip. Methane slip is not a term we hear too often

Read More »

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Matt McDaniel DLS Marine Survey and Appraisal

Matt McDaniel

Hull & Machinery Surveyor

Areas of Expertise:

  • Hull and Machinery
  • Damage Assessment and Repairs
  • Condition
  • Inspections
  • Project Management

Memberships / Professional Certification:

  • NAMS-CMS

Background:

Matt began marine surveying in 2014 and has experience with damage causation, reviewing transit plans, new construction, cargo transfers, salvage operations, on/off charters, and general condition surveys. He joined the Hull & Machinery department at DLS in 2019.

mmcdaniel@dlsmarine.com
Jessie Page DLS Marine Survey and Appraisal

Jessie Page

Hull & Machinery Surveyor

Areas of Expertise:

  • Hull and Machinery
  • Diesel Technician
  • Marine Repair and Fabrication
  • Engine Causation Analysis
  • Equipment Damage
  • Vessel Conditions and Safety

Professional Certifications:

  • NAMS-CMS

Certified Specialist in Caterpillar diesel engines to include:

  • Small Engine Fuel Systems
  • Medium Engine Fuel Systems
  • Engine Diagnostics
  • Electronic Sensors and Control Logics
  • Electric and Electronic Troubleshooting
  • 3500 A/B/C Diesel Engine Master Mechanic I MUI/MEUI

Background:

Jessie joined DLS in 2021 with extensive experience in the marine industry. Jessie began his career as a shipfitter, machinist, and propulsion machinery installer at a shipyard. He then spent ten years as a diesel technician doing everything from routine mechanical repairs to complete engine overhauls and dynamometer testing. Jessie specializes in engine failure analysis and recognizing improper maintenance and installation. He is able to make recommendations regarding failure causation and potential imminent failures. Jessie transitioned to marine surveying in 2016 and is now a part of the DLS Hull & Machinery department.

jpage@dlsmarine.com

Ave P. Boudreaux

Marine Surveyor

Areas of Expertise:

  • Hull and Machinery
  • Project Management Supervisor (QC) – overseen numerous construction and delivery schedules for vessels
  • Extensive knowledge of U.S. Coast Guard and ABS rules and regulations for vessel construction and repair

Education:

  • Rolls-Royce Z-Drive Failure Analysis Seminar
  • Flex-Core and Aluminum Welding Course
  • Extensive training in engine, gear, and shaft alignment
  • Extensive training in vessel repair and new construction

Memberships / Professional Certification:

  • NAMS-CMS

Background:

Mr. Boudreaux has 15 years experience with offshore supply vessels, crewboats, and anchor handling tugs. During this time, he served 8 years in vessel repair and new construction, 3 years in vessel operation and logistics, and 4 years as a vessel port captain.

Mr. Boudreaux served over 3 years as a marine surveyor performing numerous types of surveys in the marine industry prior to joining DLS.

 aboudreaux@dlsmarine.com

Norm Laskay - DLS Marine Valuation

Norman F. Laskay

Of Counsel

Mr. Laskay joined Stickney, Dufour & Associates, Inc. in 1988 as a partner. He is now of Counsel. He became a Marine Surveyor in 1974, having gained prior experience in steamship agency, bulk cargo handling and vessel operations. He has been involved in many aspects of marine surveying including hull, machinery and cargo, both inland and ocean. Since becoming an Accredited Senior Appraiser of commercial marine equipment, he has been active with the American Society of Appraisers’ International Machinery and Technical Specialties Committee. He has written a comprehensive exam for the Commercial Marine Appraisal specialty and has written a 30-hour course for the American Society of Appraisers on appraising commercial marine vessels and yachts and is the lead instructor.

Areas of Expertise:

  • Commercial Marine Appraisal
  • Hull Damage and Repair
  • Cargo Loading, Securing and Trip in Tow Preparation

Education:

  • Maine Maritime Academy Graduate
    B.S. in Marine Transportation
  • Continuing education credits in Law, Appraisal, Marine Survey, and Diesel Repair.

Professional Certification/Memberships:

  • NAMS Regional Board of Directors Member 1989-1994
  • American Society of Appraisers – Chapter Treasurer 1991-1994
  • American Society of Appraisers – Chapter President 1994-1995
  • Mark Twain Club (Charter Member)
  • Machinery and Technical Specialties International Committee 1995-Present

Publications

  • The Journal of the International Machinery & Technical Specialties Committee of the American Society of Appraisers “TUGBOAT DESIGN 101” Vol 13 No. 2 Fall 1996
  • The Journal of the International Machinery & Technical Specialties Committee of the American Society of Appraisers “KEEPING AN EYE ON YOUR MARINE ASSET” Vol 13 No. 3 Winter 1996
  • Marine Money, The Ship Finance Publication of Record “ASSET BASED APPRAISAL:, Vol. 21, No. 3, May/June 2006 Wrote the chapter on Marine Asset Appraisal for the American Society of Appraisers text book: “VALUING MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT: THE FUNDAMENTALS OF APPRAISING MACHINERY AND TECHNICAL ASSETS” Second Edition. In 2008, revised the chapter for the future Third Edition and wrote an accompanying Work Book section.

Email: nlaskay@dlsmarine.com

  

Harry Ward President DLS Marine

Harry Ward

President

Harry Ward is the President of Dufour, Laskay & Strouse, Inc. Harry is a US Navy veteran and has spent much of the past decade in the maritime industry in sales, finance and general management. He has extensive experience in asset and business valuation and is working to maintain DLS leadership in marine appraisal and survey for another 50 years. Harry is a graduate of the US Naval Academy and served as a helicopter pilot and survival instructor through multiple tours of duty. He has an MBA from San Diego State University.

Areas of Expertise:

  • Fleet and Vessel Appraisals
  • Marine Business Valuation
  • Transaction Support – Due Diligence
  • Transaction Support – Marine M&A Advisory
  • Digital Inspection – Marine and Offshore Wind

Education:

  • U. S. Naval Academy, Annapolis, MD – 1991, Bachelor of Science
  • San Diego State University, San Diego, CA – 1999, MBA with emphasis in Finance

Licenses and Professional Associations

  • FINRA Licenses, Series 63 and 79 (Investment Banking)
  • American Society of Appraisers, AM
  • Certified Exit Planning Advisor, CEPA (Business value assessment and strategy development